Musings on "The Black Swan"

Black Swan

an event which 

(1) is a surprise, 

(2) has a major effect, and 

(3) is rationalized by hindsight. 

There's a book. 

 Applying this type of thinking to my life is difficult for me, but I have a few ideas. 

There are good black swans and bad ones. 

A good one could be outrageous success as an entrepreneur. If I start a business, I could make it big. Considering the industry I'm in, however, this is unlikely. Horticulture has too low an entrance barrier; anyone can compete. However, is there an area in horticulture which has the possibility of being a good black swan? In plant breeding there's the possibility of finding a novel, patent-able, and profitable trait to sell. In every other horticultural pursuit it seems that results aren't scalable. Even if I land an exquisitely high-paying job, I still have to work for it. There's no black swan lottery winning in horticulture. 

However, there are smaller surprising, majorly effective, rationalized events. There's the opportunity I had last year when a senior manager resigned and gave me his position on a silver platter. 

A bad one would be a major injury. This would surprise me, have major effect on myself and my career, and I'd probably think it was bound to happen. This almost happened to me this spring, when a coworker dropped a limb on my head and gave me a light concussion. It could have been much worse, a negative black swan which would have destroyed me. 

I need to seek good black swans, situations in which big gains are possible and not much damage can come from failure.
I need to avoid bad black swans, situations in which only a small or mediocre gain is possible, but a large loss is possible. 

I need to invest 80-85% in stable, risk free investments and 15-20% in investments with good black swan possibilities. I need to not go for mediocrity, but for surety of return and possibility of great results. 

What else does this strategy apply to? Spouses? Careers? Cars? Exercise? Diet? 

There's so much to re-think.